North Korea (Country threat level - 3)

February 3, 2009 by Tim McDowell.

According to emerging reports on 3 February 2009, North Korea is preparing to test-fire a ballistic missile that is capable of hitting the United States. International intelligence agencies have confirmed activity in line with these reports and believe that the long-range missile, a Taepodong-2 model, could be ready within one to two months. The move comes amid increasing tensions on the Korean peninsula; since the beginning of 2009, North Korea has closed its borders with South Korea and has also stated that it is abandoning its pacts with Seoul. Although North Korea agreed in 2008 to abandon its nuclear program after six-party talks and dismantled a reactor, negotiations to complete the disarmament have come to a halt.

ASI Comment: It is likely that a number of issues play a role in the deteriorating circumstances, including the inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama and the recent rumors regarding the health of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il — essentially questioning the country’s stability. It is likely that North Korea is attempting to assert its power and test the United States’ new leadership. Despite threats by the North that it will go to war with the South, no military activity has been reported near the border and it is unlikely that Pyongyang wants to provoke a major military conflict with its southern neighbor or the United States.

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