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Archive for August 12, 2008
Georgia (Country threat level - 4):
August 12, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
On 12 August 2008 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a stop to military action in Georgia. Medvedev stated that Georgia had been punished and security had been established for peacekeepers and civilians within South Ossetia. Medvedev later called for Georgian forces to move to their pre-conflict positions and for an agreement to be signed; however, Russia continues to refuse negotiations with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who Russian officials have said should step down. Saakashvili has responded with skepticism to the announcement and has also called for a deal to be signed. Russian officials have questioned a plan supported by Saakashvili, which would involve a Russian-Georgian peacekeeping force and monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), stating that Georgian peacekeepers could not be stationed in the separatist region of South Ossetia given the recent events. Following Russia’s announcement, approximately 50,000 Georgians gathered on Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue in a show of unity.Despite talk of a ceasefire, shootings and other violent incidents — including the bombing of three villages — continue to be reported. Russian forces allegedly bombed a television tower and city square in the town of Gori on the morning of 12 August. The day before, there were conflicting reports regarding the status of several cites, including Gori and Poti, which Georgians claim Russian forces had entered while Russia denied the charges. Separatist forces in Abkhazia have also continued their assault in the upper Kodori Gorge, which separates the separatist region from Georgia and is controlled by Georgian forces.
Georgian sources also claimed on 12 August that the area where a major pipeline is located was bombed, with one bomb even hitting the pipeline without exploding. However, Russian officials have denied the claims. The oil company that operates the pipeline, BP-Azerbaijan, initially said that it had not received information regarding such an attack, but BP has since closed the Baku-Supsa line, which is one of its three pipelines in the country, as a precautionary measure.
Russia’s announcement of an end to operations represents one of the most positive developments since the fighting began; however, it cannot be taken as an assurance that the conflict is close to coming to an end. A successful end to the conflict will require some degree of cooperation between the two sides, which neither party seems willing to engage in at this time. Adding to this, Russian officials appear to be seeking a complete Georgian withdrawal from South Ossetia, which the Georgian side would be unlikely to concede. Medvedev continues to warn that resistance will be dealt with harshly despite his call for military operations to end, and the potential for the conflict to reignite into widespread violence remains.
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