You are currently browsing the ISM Colorado Homeland Security News & Research weblog archives for February, 2008.
| S | M | T | W | T | F | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| « Jan | Apr » | |||||
| 1 | 2 | |||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | |
- Blogroll (51)
- CIP (132)
- HLD (511)
- HLS Book Reviews (8)
- HLS Conferences (37)
- HLS Exercise (2)
- HLS Products (7)
- State & Local (80)
- Uncategorized (49)
- Warden Messages (3)
- WMD Guides (2)
- August 4, 2010: WIKILEAKS AFGHAN PAPERS KILLING OBAMA
- July 30, 2010: National Security
- July 30, 2010: Massachusetts vs. the Electoral College
- July 29, 2010: IMMIGRATION DECISION WILL ERODE OBAMA SUPPORT
- July 29, 2010: Sheriff Joe Arpaio: I'll Enforce Arizona's Immigration Law
- July 28, 2010: Pelosi, Reid: Divorced From Reality
- July 27, 2010: Counter-Terrorism – Israel Identifies The Perfect Terrorist
- July 27, 2010: Domestic Terrorism Case Shocks Remote Alaska Town
- July 27, 2010: Mexico – Guards Allegedly Released Inmates To Commit Massacre
- July 26, 2010: South Korea (Country threat level - 2):
C I P
C T Specialties
Chem-Bio Guides
Conferences
HLS Publications
HLS Sector
Political
Readings
The Old Blog Archives
Travel Booking
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- March 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
Archive for February 2008
Targeting Researchers; A court order says animal-rights activists have gone too far
February 29, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
By Andrew MurrNewsweek Web ExclusiveUpdated: 3:06 PM ET Feb 27, 2008
Posted in CIP, State & Local, HLD | Print | No Comments »
Over Here or Over There, Intelligence Key to Countering Terror
February 29, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
By Matt Korade, CQ Staff
David Cid thinks he knows how to protect
The former FBI agent and current deputy director of the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism said intelligence, especially human intelligence, is the key to battling ne’er-do-wells at home and abroad.
But as anyone who has followed the controversies over prewar intelligence or the National Security Agency’s wiretapping program knows, intelligence is never perfect.
Those who gather human intelligence are “the best, but they’re difficult to deal with,” Cid said, speaking at an International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals on Thursday at Alion Science & Technology’s headquarters in Washington.
The Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism provides free Web access to its online database of terrorism cases, the “terrorism knowledge base,” a resource for security officials and others that was funded with grant money from the Department of Homeland Security, Cid said.
The reason intelligence is critically important is that the spectrum of terrorist threats is so broad, he said. At the high-end is al Qaeda and other state-sponsored terrorist organizations, whose destructive-potential is well known.
On the low end are people like Leroy Charles Wheeler and Douglas Allen Baker. Wheeler and Baker were members of the Patriots Council, a right-wing, anti-government group that abhorred paying taxes, according to records on the MIPT site.
Despite the fact that “their collective IQs” would barely break 100, Cid said, the two were able to get their hands on ricin, a lethal poison derived from castor beans, which they were planning to use as a weapon. After an informant turned them in, the pair were charged under the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989 (PL 101-298) and sentenced to brief prison terms.
“So we’re static, and he’s not,” Cid said, referring to the terrorists. And the more that dichotomy continues, the more Cid believes there will be another major terrorist attack on
In fact, the
“The ideal operational environment for a terrorist,” Cid said, reading a quote that was written on the overhead projection, “is a republic grounded in a constitution, guaranteeing he will enjoy privacy, freedom of movement and a vigorous defense if arrested.”
Another perceived weakness is the public’s supposed aversion to suffering mass casualties, an idea that ultimately prompted Osama bin Laden to reject the admonitions of traditional terrorist thinkers, such as Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine tactician George Habash, who died last month.
Habash once said terrorism was “a thinking man’s game.” What that meant, Cid said, was that a terrorist should kill only enough people to be taken seriously, or he runs the risk of invoking the enmity of the local population.
The Domestic Front
Even small-scale terrorist activities can be extremely disruptive.
“Terrorism is theater,” Cid said, quoting counterterrorism expert Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corp. In most cases it’s directed at the viewer as much as the victim.
Domestically, the most immediate danger is from conventional weapons, Cid said, like that used in the
The Klan has become politicized today over issues such as border control, immigration and eminent domain; “this is good,” Cid said, “because when they’re political, they’re not killing people.”
The Animal Liberation Front could resort to violence if it perceived its message wasn’t getting out — a possibility, considering a burger joint opens up about “every 15 seconds,” Cid said. When a group believes its goals are being frustrated, its zealots take command, negating the influence of “active and concerned” members who usually exert a moderating effect on the membership.
But that membership is hard to penetrate, because terrorist groups by definition tend to share the same values and beliefs, form strong personal bonds among members, and rely on previously tested relationships.
So, how can they be deterred? The best method is to form small, highly mobile, intelligence driven, self-contained units – much like the FBI has created with in its Joint Terrorism Task Forces. These small cells of highly trained, locally based investigators, analysts, SWAT experts and other specialists from dozens of law enforcement and intelligence agencies, have proven effective, Cid said.
The challenge of counterterrorists is to determine which groups like to stockpile weapons and badmouth the government and which plan to act on those criticisms, he said. That requires actionable intelligence, and that’s best gleaned from human contacts.
As imperfect as pre-Iraq-war intelligence showed them to be, they’re necessary, Cid said.
Matt Korade can be reached at mkorade@cq.com.
Source: CQ Homeland Security
© 2008 Congressional Quarterly Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Posted in HLS Book Reviews, HLD | Print | No Comments »
New Software for Predicting Terror
February 28, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
Researchers at the University of Maryland’s Institute for Advanced Computer Studies announced this week that they have launched an online portal that will let analysts query rules on the behavior of terrorist organizations and forecast their future behavior.
![]()
The SOMA Terror Organization Portal (STOP) is based on a framework of Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents. A formal, logical-statistical reasoning framework, SOMA uses data about the past behavior of terrorist groups to learn rules about the probability of an organization, community or person taking certain actions in certain situations, institute officials said in a statement. University of Maryland researchers have also used SOMA rules to predict scenarios such as the likelihood of Afghan farmers to grow opium poppies.
![]()
V.S. Subrahmanian, the institute’s director, a computer science professor and leader of the STOP project, said SOMA can automatically execute rules about behavioral data and “allow us to infer what a group might do in a real or hypothetical situation.”
![]()
SOMA has generated tens of thousands of rules about the likely behavior of 30 groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, institute officials said.
![]()
STOP contains a table of data about each terrorist group the researchers study, Subrahmanian said. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, a political science professor at the University of Maryland, created the table. Each row denotes a particular year in which the group was active, and each column describes a variable, such as the degree of violence used by a state against the terrorist group. The variables fall into two categories: environmental variables, which describe the environment in which the group operates, and action variables, which denote the intensity of the group’s actions.
![]()
Subrahmanian and the STOP researchers have “developed algorithms that automatically examine the data in these tables and automatically identify statistical rules that link the environmental variables and the action variables,” he said. “Such rules specify the conditions under which the group took a given action.”
![]()
“SOMA is a significant joint computer science and social science achievement that will facilitate learning about and forecasting terrorist group behavior based on rigorous mathematical and computational models,” Subrahmanian said. “But even the best science needs to work hand in hand with social scientists and users. In addition to accurate behavioral models and forecasting algorithms, the SOMA Terror Organization Portal acts as a virtual roundtable that terrorism experts can gather around and form a rich community that transcends artificial boundaries.”
![]()
The Defense Department funds the portal, which has users from four defense agencies. It allows for interaction among the users, who can perform queries, run a prediction engine, mark rules as useful or not useful, and post comments.
![]()
“Security analysts need more than piles of data,” said Aaron Mannes, a researcher at the institute and author of Profiles in Terror: The Guide to Middle East Terrorist Organizations. “It takes a network to fight a network. Analysts need to learn from other analysts. This system allows multiple users to arrive at a shared understanding of how a terror group operates and what it might do in the future.”
Posted in State & Local, HLD | Print | No Comments »
Supreme Court Rejects ACLU Challenge to Warrantless Surveillance
February 21, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
The Supreme Court on Tuesday turned down a legal challenge to the warrantless domestic spying program President
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1925683320080219
Posted in State & Local, HLD | Print | No Comments »
Islamic Jamaat Activists Sentenced in Russia
February 21, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
The Russian “Tatar Supreme Court agreed with the jury’s guilty verdict in relation to
http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=4288
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »
Hicks Diary Reveals Terror Training
February 21, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
David Hicks’s handwritten ‘jihad diary’ gives new insight into the sophisticated terrorism training he underwent, exploding claims that he was an innocent abroad,” reports the Australian. “The confessed terrorism supporter used a school exercise
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23243932-5006787,00.html
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »
Fidel Castro Resigns as Head of Cuba
February 21, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
For many years I have occupied the honorable position of President,” Castro wrote in Granma. “[Because of] my unstable health
http://www.granma.cu/ingles/2008/febrero/mar19/mensaje-i.html
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »
Opposition Group Claims That Iran Has Nuclear Warhead Factory; Iranian Lawmaker Announces Countdown to Israel’s Destruction
February 21, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
The Iranian opposition group that first exposed Iran’s controversial nuclear fuel program”—the National Council of Resistance of Iran—has given the International Atomic Energy Agency “details of what the group says is a working nuclear warhead factory, visited by North Koreans,” reports the Australian. “The facility at Khojir, a Defence Ministry missile research site on the southeast edge of Tehran, is developing a nuclear warhead for use on Iranian medium-range missiles, according to Mohammad Mohaddessin, foreign affairs chief for” the exiled group. And “Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam Hadad has warned that the ‘countdown to Israel’s destruction has begun,’ in an interview published Thursday in an Iranian newspaper,” reports Haaretz.
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »
GOVERNMENT WARNINGS
February 20, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
On 15 February 2008, the U.S. Department of State issued the following Travel Warning: “This Travel Warning is being updated to inform American citizens of recent attempts to assassinate the President and Prime Minister of Timor-Leste (formerly East Timor) and the continuing potential for violence, and to urge American citizens to defer non-essential travel to Timor-Leste at this time. Americans currently in Timor-Leste should evaluate carefully their safety and security situation in light of this Travel Warning. This supersedes the Travel Warning issued on September 12, 2007.
“On February 11, 2008, armed rebels attempted to assassinate President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. The President was shot at his home and evacuated to Australia for medical treatment, and the Prime Minister was unharmed.
“The Department of State advises U.S. citizens of the continuing potential for violent civil unrest in Timor-Leste. The situation could deteriorate without warning and foreigners may be specifically targeted. U.S. citizens should defer non-essential travel to Timor-Leste at this time. Those already in Timor-Leste should exercise extreme caution, limit movements to the greatest extent possible, and maintain a high level of security awareness while moving around in Dili; be alert to the potential for violence; and avoid demonstrations, large gatherings, and areas where disturbances have occurred. Demonstrations can occur at or near symbols and institutions of the Government of Timor-Leste, including government buildings and houses belonging to prominent politicians. Even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence.”
Montenegro (Country threat level - 3): On 15 February 2008, the U.S. Embassy in Podgorica issued the following Warden Message: “Due to heightened political activity in the region, local gatherings and events, both official and unofficial, may be potentially large and could pose security risks for onlookers and participants. Businesses and organizations with U.S. affiliations may serve as focal points for demonstrations, especially in the event of a declaration of independence by Kosovo. American citizens are strongly urged to avoid crowds, keep a low profile, and maintain security awareness. U.S. Government personnel were advised to consider deferring travel to areas known to have a significant pro-Serb or pro-Albanian population at this time. American citizens may wish to take this information into consideration when making their own travel plans. Embassy Podgorica will advise further as circumstances warrant.
“We wish to remind American citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence. American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations.”
Serbia (Country threat level - 4): On 17 February 2008, the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade issued the following Warden Message: “Serbia is in a period of heightened political activity following the declaration of independence by Kosovo. Local gatherings and events, both official and unofficial, may be potentially large and could pose security risks for onlookers and participants. Businesses and organizations with U.S. affiliations may serve as focal points for these demonstrations. American citizens are strongly urged to avoid crowds and maintain security awareness. Embassy Belgrade will advise further as circumstances warrant.”
Zimbabwe (Country threat level - 5): On 15 February 2008, the U.S. Department of State issued the following Travel Alert: “This Travel Alert is being issued to inform U.S. citizens of safety and security concerns related to the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe scheduled for Saturday, 29 March 2008. This Travel Alert expires on 1 May 2008.
“The national election season in Zimbabwe may pose a security threat to U.S. citizens in Zimbabwe. Previous elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005 were contentious and sparked food, water and fuel shortages, as well as occasional outbreaks of violence. Given the present, significantly weaker, Zimbabwean economy, chronic hyperinflation, and ongoing shortages, the 2008 election season has the potential to generate widespread instability and violence.
“Demonstrations and general unrest may occur during this period. The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens who live, work, or are traveling in Zimbabwe to maintain a high level of vigilance. Avoid visiting high-density suburbs, industrial zones, and unfamiliar areas. Be aware of your surroundings and avoid potentially threatening events such as demonstrations, rallies, or other public gatherings. Even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence.”
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »
Kosovo / Serbia (Country threat level - 4)
February 20, 2008 by Tim McDowell.
Kosovo formally declared its independence from Serbia on 17 February 2008. The United States recognized Kosovo’s independence on 18 February. Several other countries, including the United Kingdom, France and Australia have done the same, while others — such as Germany and Poland — have declared their intention to do the same and are expected to make recognition official in the course of this week. As expected, Serbia and Russia denounced the move as illegal. Several EU countries, including Spain, Greece, Romania and Cyprus, also refused to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia recalled its ambassadors from the United States, the United Kingdom and France and demanded that these countries’ ambassadors leave Belgrade within 24 hours. Serbia will likely take similar steps against other countries that decide to recognize Kosovo’s independence.
Since the declaration of independence there have been several protests by Serbs in Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. In Kosovo, the Serbian-majority enclaves have been the focus of the protests and acts of violence. On 19 February, Serbs burned down a border-crossing post between northern Kosovo and Serbia and attacked another. Kosovo police officers had to retreat from the border posts and called in NATO peacekeeping troops for reinforcement. On 18 February, approximately 10,000 Serbs demonstrated against independence in the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica. International troops deployed along the main bridge that links the northern part of the town (where Serbs live) with the southern one (inhabited by Albanians). There were no reports of violence.
Posted in HLD | Print | No Comments »